Article:

A Rational Explanation for Boom-and-Bust Price Patterns in Real Estate Markets

Author: Su Han Chan, Ko Wang, Jing Yang

Start Page: 257
End Page: 282
Volume: 14
Issue Number: 3
Year: 2011
Publication: International Real Estate Review

Abstract:

This paper develops a stylized model to provide a rational explanation for the boom-and-bust price movement pattern that we frequently observe in the real world. Our stylized model indicates that there are three conditions to form a boom-and-bust price pattern in a community: a move-in of high income residents, wide income gap between new and existing residents, and supply process that leads to an inventory buildup. It seems that, based on these three conditions, China is more likely to experience a boom-and-bust price movement pattern than a developed country with a more mature and less vibrant economy.

Keywords:

Real Estate Cycles; Boom-and-Bust; Supply Decision; Moving Costs

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